Around ten months ago the Liberal Democrats got their first taste of power in nearly forty years when they become the junior party in a coalition government with David Cameron’s Conservative party, a move which, due to their very differing bases of support, surprised many watching.
As part of the price they got an agreement on something which, while not part of their last election manifesto, has always been a core desire of theirs, namely a referendum on reforming the current system of voting in the UK. And while the system they are pushing is not the exact one they have always sort, it is, in the words of Deputy Prime Minister, and Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, a start.
So on May fifth 2011 we in the UK get to answer a yes or no to a very simple question, do you want to change the way we elect MP’s and governments in this country?
They are in their strongest parliamentary position for decades, something which may not happen again for another three or four decades. I cannot see one of the major parties supporting a change if they were in a strong position, so they have only this one chance, and have, in their excitement and desperation, taking it too early?
So what are we voting to change and what are the options? As I have stated, this is to change the very way we elect MP’s to the main UK parliament at Westminster, this will not affect the three devolved assemblies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Island , local or even the elections to the European Parliament in Brussels.
A no means we carry on with the current, very simple, first past the post system. In this you place an X next to the candidate you like, the one with the most votes wins the seat, the party with the most seats overall wins the election and its leader gets to call themselves Prime Minister. In fact this system has meant that coalitions are a rarity in modern politics, only two since the end of World War One .
Voting yes, well that will bring in a more complicated system, the Alternative Vote system. Now simply put, and believe me when I say putting this simply is a challenge, it works like this.
When you go to the booth to vote you would have the option to mark your candidates in order of preference, so you may want a Labour MP, but then again, if they don’t win, you might not want a Tory one, so you might mark the Lib Dem candidate as second preference, then so on down the poll paper until you run out of candidates you like.
Ok so far, still awake? No, deep breath WAKE UP!!!!!!!!! Back, good I shall continue, and take notes I’ll be asking questions later.
Now, as normal, when the polling station shuts the sealed boxes will be taken away to be counted, starting with the first preference votes. If one of the candidates polls over fifty percent of the vote, then they are the MP, the result is declared, the winner makes a nice speech thanking the world and his wife, the losers all, insincerely, congratulate him (or her) and then bugger off for a celebratory drink, or maybe to drown their sorrows and bemoan the stupidity of the electorate.
However, if no one polls so high, and to be honest I can’t think of anyone previously ever winning by so high a margin, the poor little vote counting elves start all over again, only this time for the second preference votes. Now the candidate who has polled the least votes in round one is eliminated, and yes I am well aware this is sounding like the live shows of the bloody X factor, and their second preference votes are shared ‘tween the others. If there still isn’t anyone with over fifty percent the whole process is started all over again, this time for third preference. Now this will go on until either someone wins or, they all get bored, declare Ant and Dec as the new government, call for a nurse and then collapse in a heap of nervous tension muttering darkly, “you had to have been there man, you just had have been there.”
Now, what the Lib Dem’s, and a lot of the smaller parties as well, are hoping for, is that it will let them sneak MP’s in as second or third preference, enough they think, to allow them to hold the balance of power in all future governments, and this is where they may have some problems.
Now you very may well ask yourselves, what makes them think this will happen, what makes them believe that they will be enough people’s second choice? Well they are counting on their normal midterm support being expanded. You see broadly speaking there are three types of voters.
The first type will almost never change the party they vote for, come thick or thin, hell or high water etc, they are Labour/ Tory/ Lib Dem till they die, or the party does something so momentously stupid that they are no longer the same party, so they go and find something similar.
The second group of voters, these are termed floating voters. Now this is not because they live on the river in pretty little houseboats, it’s because they float from party to party, depending on their mood, fashion, media influence or just plain self interest. So in 2005 they may have voted to keep the, then current, Labour government. Then, turned off and influenced by the current financial situation, they changed allegiance, either to the Tories or indeed, and this is what looked to have happened, the Lib Dems
The third and final group skirt the line between the two, these are the protest voters. Now these people will normally vote for one of the major parties, however sometimes they want to fire a warning shot across their bows, so in mid-term elections, either for Westminster, one of the devolved or a council election, they will vote for one of the ‘smaller’ parties.
And it is this that the Lib Dem’s do very well from, as the current government loses its way, its supporters can’t see themselves voting for the official opposition, so they give their vote to the Lib Dem’s as they have always seemed a mite eccentric though harmless, the nice and honest party, the only one to pledge to raise taxes, decommission the Trident nuclear missiles etc.
What the Lib Dem’s, and to truthful the parties on the fringe as well, are hoping for, is that having the chance to mark the paper 1,2,3 will mean that the floaters and the protestors will mark them as second preference, even when the government is doing well, therefore given them a boost in the number of seats and allowing them to hold the balance of power after every election.
Now in the immediate aftermath of the election it must have seemed like a good idea holding he referendum a year later, their support was at an all time high, and they looked like they were in a position to make a difference.
However in the ten months since the election everything has changed, their vote has collapsed, with even mutterings coming from their own rank and file members of ‘what are we doing working with the Tories’ having a pre-election slogan that broadly went, ‘vote for us or the Tories will get in’ and then promptly letting the Tories in hasn’t helped them.
Also two things happened which heavily dented their reputation as the ‘nice party’.
Pre election the whole party signed pledges saying that they would not back a rise in student tuition fees, a pledge they had to break as the coalition agreement meant that, with the exception of the Trident replacement, they would have to vote with the Tories on policy.
Now this in itself would have been survivable had it not been for something else. During Chancellor George Osborne’s first budget speech he was seen clapping and cheering during the announcement of the cutting of a half a million public sector workers, something which didn’t go down well.
There is a final reason why the timing could suit the Tories more than themselves.
The size of the deficit run up, rightly or wrongly, something to be debated in another blog, in trying to keep the country going, meant that whoever got in power some pretty unpopular decisions would have to be made and the pain would be felt worse in the first couple of years. The pain this would cause the public made it obvious that they would dislike the government.
Now they could be hit and their dreams dashed if people believe that the coalition isn’t working, especially as they are tarred with the same brush for all the decisions.
Now the thing is, and this is something that all the supporters of AV, who also includes Labour leader Ed Milliband, though that may change when he realise just how many of his MP’s dislike the AV idea, seem to forget is the voters in the UK are conservative, that’s conservative with a small ‘c’, not the party. Will they be willing to vote in a something that may not make a change for the better? Especially if they look back and see one of the major supporters are involved in the decisions which are making their lives harder? Probably not.
Now it would have been better to wait until the second or third year of the government, give the situation time to settle down. After that period there could be signs of growth, or at the very least people are starting to be used to the idea.
Something else which could help them if they wait, the fact that political support is quite fluidic, a parties support may collapse one election, but by careful rehabilitation, some patience and luck, the support will return. So, waiting a couple of years will give the potential upswing of support time to start developing again.
Now this would not guarantee a yes vote, but it might help with the ‘don’t knows’, it might, if their circumstances haven’t changed for the worse, push them towards a yes vote.
The major con as far as having the referendum in 2012 or 2013 is that there may not be time to get it in place before the 2015 election, but at least it would be ready in time for the 2020 election.
Notes:
The Scottish Parliament and the Welsh & Northern Irish assemblies use various forms of proportional representation.
The first one was the last government led by the Liberal party, initially under HH Asquith (1852-1928) in 1915 and then after he resigned it was led by David Lloyd George (1863-1945), who to date has been the last Liberal PM, from 1916 to 1918 and who also lasted as a minority leader into the first four years of the peace until he was ousted by the majority Conservatives under Andrew Bonar Law (1858-1922)
This was the National Government of 1931-35, led by Ramsay MacDonald, the countries first Labour Prime Minister and was made up from all the parties in Westminster at the time.
Labour leader Harold Wilson had a failed attempt to create on after the 1974 election which resulted in him leading a minority government. However the year after he retired, in 1977, then PM Jim Callaghan resurrected the idea as the ‘Lib-Lab Pact’ with Liberal leader David Steele until 1978. This was just a lose promise to include Liberal policies as a price for Liberal support for Labour and not as has been suggested a full blown coalition.